LONDON, Aug 28 (Reuters) – A G20 gathering, key U.S. jobs data and central bank meetings in Canada and New Zealand all suggest there’s not much downtime for traders catching up on that post summer read-in.
Here’s all you need to know about the coming week in financial markets by Rae Wee in Singapore, Lewis Krauskopf in New York and Karin Strohecker, Alun John and Dhara Ranasinghe in London.
1/ ISLANDS IN THE STREAM
After Jackson Hole, it’s on to the next gig.
Central bankers from around the world will swap Wyoming’s mountain air for the Blue Ridge Mountains of North Carolina, heading from the Fed’s Jackson Hole gathering to Asheville for Monday and Tuesday’s G20 meeting.
The absence of Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda from Jackson Hole has already turned investors’ attention to the G20 gathering, where he is expected to attend alongside Japan’s finance minister. And by the time September is under way they’ll be facing some tricky currents with geopolitics, elections and interest-rate decisions all making for choppy waters.
The Fed and BOJ September meetings are already shaping up as key risk events, while Middle East tensions remain in focus.
France faces rocky budget negotiations and regional elections in Germany could test Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s political footing.
Beyond that, investors are already looking ahead to a consequential UK budget and U.S. midterm elections.
2/ DOLLAR DEBASEMENT, SERIOUSLY?
Another source of potential market volatility comes from the U.S. Treasury market, where traders may well test Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s resolve to limit a rise in U.S. borrowing costs.
Recent days have seen talk of “dollar debasement” gather pace as a result.
The idea is simple: if the U.S. Treasury caps long-term borrowing costs through bond buybacks, then investors will price in worries about a $40-trillion debt pile and policy uncertainty somewhere – the dollar.
For sure the greenback and U.S. Treasuries have stabilised in recent days from a bout of selling. However, that has not stalled the debasement talk with market watchers sceptical that buybacks worth $4 billion will shift the needle.
Gold has surged 13% in August, set for its biggest monthly jump since 1999. Bitcoin also appears to be benefiting: the cryptocurrency moved back above $80,000 on Tuesday.
3/ HOT OR COLD?
Friday’s U.S. jobs report will shed light on whether the country’s labour market may be softening or if last month’s dour data was a one-off event.
It’s expected to show employment climbed by a tepid 45,000 jobs in August, according to a Reuters poll, after falling by an unexpected 23,000 in July.
The weak July report did calm market worries about near-term interest rate hikes, although Fed funds futures still suggest better-than-even odds of a rate increase before the year is out.
Data this week showed inflation continues to run above the Fed’s 2% target. Other economic data next week include reports on manufacturing and services activity.
Elsewhere, Broadcom’s quarterly results on Wednesday will likely be in focus after fellow semiconductor giant Nvidia’s earnings underscored strong demand for AI computing.
4/ INFLATION RUNNING HOT
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) announces its policy decision on Wednesday, where a hike to 2.75% is likely a done deal as the economy continues to grapple with mounting price pressures.
New Zealand’s annual inflation accelerated in the second quarter to a 2-1/2-year high on the back of a sharp rise in fuel prices, and with war in the Middle East still raging, energy costs are unlikely to abate anytime soon.
Investors see rates reaching 3.0% by December and 3.5% next year as the RBNZ shifts from outright stimulus to a more neutral policy stance.
Over in Ottawa, the Bank of Canada is also due to announce its rate decision on Wednesday. The central bank is seen keeping rates on hold now and well into next year, as price pressures remain largely contained although trade tensions with the U.S. add uncertainty to the economic outlook.
5/ EURO ZONE ANGST
Euro zone August inflation is forecast to hit 3.3%, its highest in nearly three years, driven by elevated energy costs.
The data is due on Tuesday, and the European Central Bank will also be watching readings excluding volatile food and energy prices, forecast to be closer to its 2% inflation target, but still above it.
The ECB’s big worry is that higher energy prices spill over into broader inflation.
Traders are convinced the ECB will raise rates at its September meeting. Tuesday’s figure would have to be very low to change that, but it will shape longer-term expectations.
Markets price a further hike by early 2027, but sources told Reuters that policymakers will have little appetite to signal further tightening at September’s meeting.
In other European Union news, Iceland holds a referendum on Saturday on restarting negotiations to join the bloc.
(Graphics by Sumanta Sen; Compiled by Dhara Ranasinghe; Editing by Jamie Freed)
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