By Stella Qiu
SYDNEY, Aug 7 (Reuters) – Asian shares held their breath on Friday ahead of U.S. jobs data that could prove pivotal for next month’s interest-rate decision by the Federal Reserve, while rising oil prices served as a reminder that Middle East tensions remain far from resolved.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan slipped 0.1% and was down 0.5% for the week. Japan’s Nikkei dropped 0.5% although it was set for a weekly rise of 1.7%.
South Korea’s KOSPI also fell 0.5% and was down 5.1% for the week for a seventh straight week of declines. The index had doubled in the first half of the year, swept up by the blistering demand for AI-linked chip stocks.
China’s CSI 300 rose 0.8% after data showed China’s huge export machine kept powering ahead to boost the economy.
After bouts of volatility sparked by concerns over the durability of the AI-driven rally, investors are now squarely focused on the U.S. payrolls report due later in the day, which could prove crucial for the interest-rate outlook. Forecasts are centred on a rise of 80,000 jobs for July after a 57,000 gain in June, with the unemployment rate forecast to hold steady at 4.2%.
The stakes are high as markets cannot seem to make up their mind about how the Federal Reserve might move next month, with a rate hike seen as a coin toss.
“With yields and inflation still the key risks for stocks, we expect Friday’s NFP to trade as a ‘good news is bad news’ print,” said Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at JPMorgan, adding that a strong jobs number would reinforce higher-for-longer pricing and put upward pressure on rates.
Conversely, equities may respond positively to a soft payrolls report as yields ease and policy expectations shift toward a dovish path, added Feroli.
Nasdaq futures inched up 0.1% while S&P 500 futures
OIL CLIMBS AGAIN
Tensions in the Middle East flared up again after Yemen’s Houthis attacked Saudi Arabia, a major oil supplier. Riyadh has warned coordinated attacks by the Houthis and Iran-backed Iraqi militias were imminent.
Brent crude futures gained 1.5% to $83.78 a barrel, after jumping 3.8% overnight. They were, however, still set for a weekly loss of 7% and remained well off their recent peak of $102 a barrel two weeks ago.
Iran is reviewing a preliminary bill that would bar U.S., Israeli and other “hostile” vessels from transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The draft bill would impose fines of up to 20% of a ship’s cargo value for violations of the proposed restrictions.
Higher oil prices lifted Treasury yields. The 2-year note yield held at 4.2496% in Asia, after rising 7 basis points overnight, while the 10-year yield steadied at 4.6821%, having gained 5 bps overnight.
The dollar was steady in Asia on Friday after bouncing overnight.
Against the Japanese yen, the dollar traded at 158.38 yen, after rising 0.4% overnight to break above the 200-day average of around 158. The U.S. jobs report could decide the next moves in the yen after last week’s historic currency market intervention from Japan and the U.S. sparked a sharp rally.
Spot gold rose 0.7% to $4,268 an ounce, while spot silver rose 1.3% to $62.29 an ounce.
(Reporting by Stella Qiu; Editing by Shri Navaratnam and Kate Mayberry)
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