FORT COLLINS, Colo. (Reuters) — After a largely dry summer, the shift to a wetter pattern across the U.S. Corn Belt has mostly stabilized yield hopes for the Crop Watch corn and soybeans, but late improvements are expected for the two corn fields in top grower Iowa.
In general, Crop Watch producers feel a little better about yield prospects for corn versus those for soybeans, though projections for both remain slightly lower than a month or two ago.
Both Iowa producers increased yield expectations by a quarter-point on their cornfields, and those were the only changes made this week. The western Iowa corn joins the southeastern Illinois corn as the only two of the 22 Crop Watch fields where yield expectations are a perfect 5.
Rainfall for the western Iowa location over the past six weeks was double that of eastern Iowa despite a slightly wetter climate in the eastern half of the state.
The 11-field, unweighted average corn yield increased to 3.82 from 3.77 a week earlier. That is tied with the mid-August average but below expectations prior to that. No changes were made to soybean yields this week and that score remains at 3.66.
Those ratings would represent an above-average but not great crop. A score of 3 reflects yields close to farm average, 4 is solidly above, and 5 is well above average or record yields.
WETTER WEATHER
All 11 locations received rain last week, the most being 4.3 inches (109 mm) in Nebraska and the least 0.3 inch in southeastern Illinois. That was far more rain than was needed in Nebraska, but producers in that area are generally optimistic about the harvest ahead.
Most of the Crop Watch fields are no longer helped by rains, and the week ahead is forecast to be drier than normal, especially in the west. Crops should continue steadily moving toward maturity with moderate to slightly warm temperatures expected.
The Dakota locations have been the driest ones all summer, but both producers noted this week that their lawns have greened up for the first time this year with between 2 and 3 inches of rain over the past three weeks. But the North Dakota grower believes the recent rains simply maintained yields rather than improved them.
The North Dakota crops will no longer be helped by rain from here, but area farmers welcome the much-needed moisture ahead of next year’s planting. The recent rains in Kansas are also boosting producers’ hopes for decent moisture ahead of winter wheat seeding, which is heavy during October.
Harvest will begin in the second half of this month for many of the Crop Watch fields, though most producers note that the timing of their harvests should be close to normal. A few fields are ahead of recent years, including South Dakota due to the summer’s heat and Ohio due to earlier planting.
The following are the states and counties of the 2021 Crop Watch corn and soybean fields: Griggs, North Dakota; Kingsbury, South Dakota; Freeborn, Minnesota; Burt, Nebraska; Rice, Kansas; Audubon, Iowa; Cedar, Iowa; Warren, Illinois; Crawford, Illinois; Tippecanoe, Indiana; Fairfield, Ohio.
Photos of the 22 Crop Watch fields can be tracked on Twitter by following @kannbwx.
The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a market analyst for Reuters.
Editing by Matthew Lewis
