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SIOUX FALLS, S.D. (KELO.com) — As a powerful storm emerges from the West and takes an agonizingly slow track across the Great Plains this week, severe thunderstorms will erupt for multiple days over the central United States, AccuWeather meteorologists warn.
Through Thursday, at least 18 states could be affected by the outbreak.
Some locations in the southern U.S. may be hit by severe weather for the fourth consecutive week, but the setup may also pose the most significant risk of severe thunderstorms for portions of the North Central states of the year so far, perhaps eclipsing the outbreak from March 25.
All facets of violent weather are possible this week with the likelihood of a significant outbreak. Many of the storms will bring strong, gusty winds, heavy rain and frequent lightning strikes. However, the most powerful storms will carry the potential for large hail, damaging wind gusts and tornadoes.
The first storms erupted later Sunday afternoon and continued Sunday night from central Oklahoma to southeastern Kansas and central Missouri as a lead disturbance ahead of the main storm system pivoted across the Plains.
Timing the advancing severe weather for the remainder of the week will be tricky, as there will be multiple disturbances that pivot around the main storm, according to AccuWeather Meteorologist Jake Sojda. These disturbances could cause storms to steadily advance one day, slow down another, and then fire up again farther to the west.
Severe weather is likely to unfold on Monday from northeastern Texas to Arkansas and southern Missouri.
The storms on Monday afternoon and evening will likely fire just east of a boundary separating dry air over the High Plains to the west and surging warm and humid air from the Gulf of Mexico to the east. A few storms in this zone could bring all modes of severe weather, including large, damaging hail and isolated tornadoes.
An AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 80 mph is possible within any wind gusts.
However, the scope and intensity of severe weather is forecast to expand Tuesday, reaching far south as the upper Texas and Louisiana coasts and as far to the north as northern Iowa, roughly a 1,000 mile stretch.
Once again, all modes of severe weather are forecast to erupt, from flooding downpours and hail to damaging winds and tornadoes.
“Because this massive storm, which will also be producing heavy snow across the Rockies and northern Plains, is expected to be slow-moving, much of the same area that will be threatened by severe weather on Monday will be at risk again on Tuesday,” said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Courtney Travis.
Forecasters will be paying particularly close attention to flash flooding, especially where storms overlap areas hit on Sunday or Monday. Meteorologists will also be closely monitoring the potential for powerful wind gusts and tornadoes.
The greatest risk for Tuesday’s severe weather is likely for communities from Dallas to Kansas City. This could also be the second day in a row that Dallas could be threatened by severe thunderstorms.
While many of the thunderstorms during the outbreak will erupt as a result of the warmth of the day and gradually weaken during the evening as the air cools, some pockets of severe weather and tornado risk may continue well after dark.
“Thunderstorms may last well after dark on Tuesday from portions of Arkansas and Louisiana,” Sojda said.
Severe thunderstorms that erupt and move through locations during the day pose a significant threat, but an extra level of danger will exist where storms linger after dark and persist through much of the night when most people are sleeping.
People are urged to review severe weather procedures and have the means to receive severe weather bulletins 24 hours a day, such as an app on a cell phone. In situations where there is a threat while sleeping, it may be best to leave the phone on all night with the volume set at an audible level, experts say.
By the middle of the week on Wednesday, the threat for severe weather is forecast to expand slightly farther east and also farther north. Severe thunderstorms could erupt anywhere from the Louisiana Gulf Coast to southern Wisconsin.
All modes of severe weather are possible again, and may extend into Wednesday night for major cities like New Orleans, Nashville, St. Louis and Chicago.
Since Dec. 31, 2021, there have only been two days where severe weather occurred in the Chicago area, according to the National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center. Both incidents occurred last month on March 4 and March 25 and involved strong wind gusts. Localized wind damage reports on March 4 were not attributed to thunderstorms. However, a significant outbreak of severe weather occurred on March 25 in the Midwest and was responsible for at least 40 reports of tornadoes from Iowa and southern Wisconsin to western Ohio.
On Thursday, thunderstorms are likely to shift a bit farther along to the east and may reach portions of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley to the north. In the South, the storm may reach parts of the Tennessee Valley and the southeastern U.S. down to the Florida Gulf Coast. While localized reports of severe weather may be possible on Thursday and into Thursday evening, the threat looks less widespread at this time. These thunderstorms could also bring an end to the abnormal warmth expected across the eastern U.S. this week.
( AccuWeather senior meteorologist, contributed this report. It first appeared here on accuweather.com.)
