The Storm Prediction Center outlook map for severe weather on Wednesday and Wednesday night. From AccuWeather, 5/26/21.
SIOUX FALLS, S.D. (KELO.com) — Severe thunderstorms will once again rumble to life Wednesday, continuing what’s been an active stretch of weather for the Central states during the final full week of May.
After tornadoes touched down, including a large and dangerous one that caused damage and an injury in Kansas Monday, the area had a brief reprieve from severe thunderstorms Tuesday. Although that area was spared from severe weather, parts of Texas experienced large hail.
Ferocious winds will be among the top concerns on Wednesday as severe weather unfolds across Kansas and surrounding areas, AccuWeather meteorologists say.
“These severe thunderstorms will have a high potential for damaging winds, large hail, heavy rain and tornadoes from eastern Wyoming into South Dakota, Nebraska and western Kansas,” said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Matt Rinde.
There is currently a moderate risk of severe weather Wednesday for parts of Nebraska and Kansas. This area, which includes cities such as Hastings and North Platte, Nebraska, has a population of around 285,000, according to the National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center. Moderate is the fourth-highest level on the SPC’s warning system for severe thunderstorms.
The number of people in the threat area when accounting for the slight risk areas across the southern Plains and the northeastern U.S is a whopping 57.4 million.
Much of Wednesday is likely to be quiet, but thunderstorms will begin to develop by late afternoon. As the storms first develop, the main threat will be large hail. By the evening and overnight, individual thunderstorms are likely to merge into a cluster. This will significantly increase the threat for damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes.
“As the storms continue to build on Wednesday night, the risk for severe weather will continue to be significant, especially through southern Nebraska into northern Kansas, where the ingredients come together most prominently for thunderstorms to spin,” said Rinde.
Wind gusts could reach an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 100 mph across parts of the Central states. For comparison, a Category 2 hurricane in the Atlantic or East Pacific Oceans, has wind speeds ranging from 96-110 mph. An EF1 tornado can generate winds anywhere from 86-110 mph.
Farther south, there will also be a threat of severe weather in the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles. Thunderstorm coverage is not expected to be as widespread, but wind, large hail and a tornado or two will be possible.
In the wake of a cold front, Wyoming, Nebraska and western Kansas will have a much quieter day Thursday. However, severe thunderstorms are likely to shift farther east.
“As the storms continue through the central Plains on Thursday, severe thunderstorm risks will continue through eastern Kansas into Missouri,” said Rinde.
He also noted that the greatest chance of tornadoes is expected to be in southeastern Kansas and southwestern Missouri Thursday.
The risk for severe weather will be lower by the end of the week, as the cold front continues to move southward. The most likely area for severe thunderstorms Friday will be in Texas and Louisiana. Strong winds, heavy downpours and an isolated tornado would be the most likely threats.
Thunderstorms may return to portions of Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas by Sunday or Monday. At this point, it is unclear how strong the storms will be, but AccuWeather meteorologists will continue to monitor the situation heading into the upcoming holiday weekend.
( AccuWeather meteorologist, contributed this report.)
